It is 17 months still until the ANC votes on its future leaders and over 3 years before those leaders are elected/re-elected to government.

That seems like an extraordinarily long lead time to fight that particular battle. One would have hoped our leaders would have more pressing concerns …. but anyway.

Cosatu is meeting from this morning and the ANC Youth League met last week and the leadership issue was/is firmly on the agenda in both meetings.

Paul Mashatile, Gauteng African National Congress chairperson, joined the call yesterday, arguing that the debate was happening outside the party anyway, so it was important that a “disciplined discussion” begin to take place within the party.

I thought I would cast my few cents into the fray (to mangle a few metaphors) and publish a slide that I have been using for the last 2 years for investors who are eternally interested in the outcome of succession debates in countries like South Africa.

What the slide doesn’t take account of is a push to remove Zuma entirely giving Tokyo a shot at the deputy presidency at Mangaung and therefore the possibility of  him becoming president of the country by 2019. That strategy is up against it, but the rewards of success will probably cause his backers to give it a full go.

Also having Julius Malema and Fikile Mbalula in the “jostling along for DP” section is not a suggestion that they might actually realistically aspire to this position in the short term –  rather that they are already important players in shaping the outcome.

If there is anyone you don’t recognise feel free to treat this as a write in Spot the Odd Man Out competition (the answer to that would be Lindiwe Sisulu); or Who’s the Dark Horse? (the answer to that would be Mathews Phosa) and Who’s the most favoured person never to get the job? (Cyril Ramaphosa by a country mile.)

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